Buyer Beware: "Trending" Tells Little of the Story

For those of us who look to "trends" to explain why a particular region voted a certain way in a given election, we may need to reassess our data. A thorough review of past performance, across the states, in the arena of the Electoral College, reveals a few surprises.

For a prime example, look no further than California. It is always taken for granted that Californians will solidly support most Democrats in the majority of elecions, yet "trend data" backs this claim only to a certain extent. Democrats have enjoyed a favorable climate for the past five elections; however, prior to 1992, the previous five elections in California had gone RED. Ronald Reagan was an extremely charismatic, communicative public figure..... a transformational figure, bearing the cult of personality in a similar fashion to Barack Obama, with critics and supporters alike agreeing each man has an "it" quality we rarely see in American politics. Ronald Reagan was a native son of.... CALIFORNIA. California's "red" period can most likely be attributed to this one figure, a symbol, in the mind of many Californians, of the best government possible. Incidentally, most Americans agreed with them, although history has offered a more balanced portrayal of the Reagan years.

Illinois, Barack Obama's home state, is another illustration. Illinois has traditionally been..... RED! The Land of Lincoln, Illinois is now considered an automatic credit in the Democrat column, but it has only become this way in recent times. Illinois was consistently red until 1992, when Governor Bill Clinton brought a "New Democrat" approach to the table, governing more from the center than either polar opposite. Illinois voters liked this new centrist model, and have supported Democrats ever since. So, as we see, another transformational figure literally transformed the political performance of a state.

Vermont is another theoretical liberal bastion; people always assume Vermont will go for the Dems. However..... until 1992, just not true! Vermont citizens had voted red all across the spectrum until the Democratic party demonstrated it could speak to all views, not just the liberal elite.

Conversely, Louisiana is generally lumped in with the "deep south"; this is for some good reasons. However, politically, Louisiana is always a toss-up, or, at least, this used to be true. Louisiana has voted for the winner in every election dating back to 1972, and as we know, there have been both Democratic and Republican victories during this time period. Now, it could logically be argued that Louisiana does, indeed, currently trend Republican. All elections from the past ten years, minus the victory for Kathleen Blanco (D), as governor from 2003-2007, have gone in the Red Column. Still, it is worth noting that Louisiana has not been a "gimme" for any party; until 2008, Louisiana voted for the winner, both Democrat and Republican. Yet, all trends are meant to be broken, and Louisiana ended its winning streak this cycle, supporting John McCain.

The moral of this column is : Don't automatically assume one region of the country is forever branded as "this" or "that." Many factors change these scenarios, including, but not limited to, population shifts, current conditions (foreign and domestic), and, most tellingly, the personality of the candidates. We like to think personal qualities matter little in our selection of a leader, we fancy ourselves as consumers of ideas. We are, for the most part, but we can't deny the appeal of transformational figures; they have flipped the map several times in contemporary history.

We are all Americans.... with a right to change our minds.